Vestas Wind Systems due diligence

Hatchworks conducted due diligence on Vestas Wind Systems, a global leader in onshore wind energy that designs, manufactures and maintains wind turbines. It operates through the ‘’Power Solutions’’ and ‘’Service’’ segments.

The ‘’Power Solutions’’ segment, which includes developing, construction and installation of wind turbines accounts for 86% of their sales. Whereas, the ‘’Service’’ segment, which in addition to maintenance services, also includes the sale of replacement parts, accounts for 14% of their sales.

Vestas Wind Systems, headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark, were founded in 1945 and is listed in the’Deutsche Börse Xetra’’ under the symbol ‘’VWS’’.

Financials — Vestas Wind Systems
(Source: Marketscreener.com, investing.com)

Vesta’ss (VWS) market cap is €33.29B and stock price trades around €165.25.

With a predicted net-income growth of 18.5% for 2021E and 2022E, and a net income estimate for 2022E of in excess of €1.02B, this points to a P/E ratio of 32.6x.

The revenue/sales forecast is €16.4B for 2022E, indicating an EV/Sales ratio of 2.02x.

In terms of profitability, an operating margin of 8.34% is predicted for 2022E. This is lower than some of Vesta’s (VWS) competitors; for example, Goldwind has an operating margin of 9.71% for 2022E.

Vestas (VWS) is a yielding equity with a yield of 0.92% for 2022E.

Vestas (VWS) hold a 20% market share globally and operate in 83 countries worldwide. One key advantage for the company is that it holds long-term maintenance contracts for management and repair work, which run for an average of 18 years.

To position Vestas (VWS) strongly for future growth and profitability, their focus in 2021 is to fully integrate offshore. In October 2020 they had a successful acquisition with a joint venture, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), in order to accomplish their business operations offshore.

A recent news story announced that Vestas (VWS) has received its largest ever ‘’EnVentus turbines’’ order in Germany. Vestas will supply 7 of their newest wind turbines to the project, located between Bremen and Hamburg. It is worth noting that the Company has also secured orders in Sweden and the Ukraine for their EnVentus turbines.

Vesta’s total order backlog for 2021 started at an all-time high of €43B. They are predicting revenues between €16B-€17B for 2021E. Considering that this would give them a ‘’Book to Bill’’ ratio of 2.68x, it strongly indicates that Vesta (VWS) is in a positively healthy position with a continued backlog of new orders.

If we take a look at the overall performance of Vestas (VWS) from a technical standpoint, it’s up now around 182% from its March 2020 low and 21.8% away from all-time-high. This significant upwards move has to do with the popularity in the renewable energy sector as investors have realized the potential of this disruptive energy industry and the Biden administration, supporting the industry. The transition to renewable energy has been taking place for years and starts to roll out.

However, there are some disadvantages regarding wind energy, namely:

  1. It may reduce the local bird population — birds get killed by flying into spinning turbine blades.
  2. The wind speed may be inconsistent.
  3. Some concerns exists over the noise produced by the turbine blades and visual impacts to the landscape.
  4. After the lifespan of wind turbine’s, the majority of turbine blades are a big challenge. While 99% of turbine’s part can be sold or recycled, turbine blades end up just being buried in a giant ‘graveyard of blades’ landfill.

According to our analysis, Vestas (VWS) shows strong growth prospects along with a net-cash position and a strong balance sheet. However, we do believe the renewable energy sector is may be already pricing in various incremental positives. As a result, Hatchworks will keep Vestas (VWS) on its radar.

The Hatchscore is 6.9 out of 10. Full details can be found on Hatchnet: www.hatch-net.com/companies

What is Vestas Wind Systems?
Vestas Wind Systems is a global leader in onshore wind energy that designs, manufactures and maintains wind turbines. It operates through the ‘’Power Solutions’’ and ‘’Service’’ segments. Vestas (VWS) hold a 20% market share globally and operate in 83 countries worldwide.

Big Investors:

  • Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC
  • BlackRock Advisors ltd.
  • The Vanguard Group, Inc.
  • Thornburg Investment Management.

What are the risks?

  • Increased prices of materials and components lead to higher costs for wind turbine manufacturing and could lead to higher energy costs, affecting Vesta’s profitability.
  • Vestas’ dependence on its commercial, technical, and operational IT infrastructure is significant. Any cyber attack might hurt their business operations.
  • Commitments made in certain contracts with customers could end up affecting cash flow or balance sheet provisions.
  • A change in interest rates could impact Vesta’s valuation or future cashflow.

Competitors:

  • Siemens Gamesa. (SGRE)
  • Goldwind. (2208)
  • Nordex. (NDX1)

Management team:

  • Henrik Ansersen: CEO.
  • Marika Fredriksson: CFO.
  • Anders Nielsen: CTO.
  • Tommy Rahbek Nielsen: COO.

The Hatchworks Team

The forecast figures are based on the data of Marketscreener.com, and not from Hatchworks: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/VESTAS-WIND-SYSTEMS-A-S-1413059/financials/

Legal Disclaimer — This report summary has been generated as a result of Hatchworks’ proprietary company vetting and filtering system. The level of due diligence conducted on investible assets conducted ranges from mediocre to significant, the latter being the case where Hatchworks has explicitly taken strategic positions in. By no means is the information in this file to be relied on as investment advice; this includes Hatchworks’ algorithmic composite score known as ‘Hatchscore’. Hatchworks has not received any compensation for this research. For more information you can reach us at info@hatchworksvc.com. This report is not for distribution in the United States of America. It is closed to U.S citizens. If you are a U.S. citizen, you should delete this report or return to sender.

Heading up the group’s R&D activities for Hatchworks.